Analysis of the impact of US tariff policy on Chinese and European lamp manufacturers
一. Impact on manufacturers in the US market
1. Sharp increase in export costs and profit compression
The cumulative tariff rate of US goods exported from China to the US has risen to 104%-125%. Lighting products such as table lamps are facing direct impact as key tax categories. Combined with the pressure of rising raw material prices, companies are forced to raise prices by 5%-8% to pass on costs, but the terminal market acceptance is limited, resulting in accelerated loss of orders in the North American market.
2. Supply chain reconstruction and re-export path obstruction
The traditional "springboard" strategy of re-exporting through third countries such as Mexico has failed. After the United States strengthened the USMCA origin certification, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese manufacturers in Mexico has dropped by more than 30%. Table lamp companies need to turn to Southeast Asia or Eastern Europe to set up new production bases, but the capacity ramp-up cycle in the short term will increase the risk of market vacancies.
3. Structural adjustment of market demand
The US market's dependence on imports of Chinese table lamps has dropped from 46% in 2018 to 28% in 2024. High-end products have shifted to local brands (such as Acuity Brands), and the mid- and low-end market share has been seized by Vietnamese and Indian manufacturers.
二. Two-way impact on European market manufacturers
1. Growth in alternative demand
The US tariff policy has prompted Europe to become an incremental market for Chinese table lamp exports. In 2024, the EU's share of Chinese lighting products imported will increase to 23%, with Germany, Poland and other countries becoming the main growth poles. European consumers' demand for cost-effective products provides Chinese manufacturers with short-term buffer space.
2. Green barriers and technological competition upgrades
The EU carbon tariff policy (CBAM) requires table lamp manufacturers to provide full life cycle carbon emission data, forcing companies to transform production processes and increase R&D investment costs by about 15%-20%. At the same time, European local brands (such as Signify) are accelerating their layout in the field of smart lighting, squeezing out Chinese manufacturers' high-end market share.
3. Logistics and localization challenges
The tight capacity of China-Europe trains has extended the export logistics cycle of table lamps by 10-15 days, and storage costs have increased by 12%. Some manufacturers have achieved localized production by acquiring factories in Romania and Hungary, but they face compliance cost pressures from European trade union systems and environmental regulations.
三. Long-term trend analysis
1. The shrinkage of the US market is irreversible: the proportion of table lamp exports to the US in China's total exports is expected to drop from 14.7% in 2024 to below 12% in 2025, and companies need to accelerate the transfer of production capacity to emerging markets such as Latin America and Africa.
2. Opportunities and risks coexist in the European market: The scale of the EU smart lighting market will exceed 18 billion euros in 2025, but after the implementation of carbon tariffs, non-compliant companies may be subject to 15%-25% additional taxes, and technology upgrades will become a life-and-death line.
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